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This is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as specific investment advice. The Weekly Market Update is published every Friday, after market close. In fact, several indicators suggest growth may be firming as the industrial cycle turns a corner. But one “R” we do not expect in 2026 is a Recession, an outcome that would threaten the durability of the bull market. The Rotation, Repricing, and waning Risk appetite we’re seeing may contribute to choppy market conditions in the near term. We view the current phase as a rebalancing, one that is creating opportunities across sectors and helping normalize valuations after an extended period of concentrated growth leadership.

This is a third-party news feed and may not reflect Fidelity’s views.

Investors instead track high-frequency alternative data to gauge consumer resilience amid gaps in official reporting. The prior shutdown already delayed key releases—such as inflation data, retail sales, housing activity and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ employment report—and the agency announced it will delay its January employment report. Government shutdown risk returned as a potential volatility catalyst as well. Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist, U.S. Policy has played a supporting role in improving expectations for growth and earnings.

It shows that about half of the negativity bias in news can be explained by the distribution of stock returns, even when the negative reporting bias is not explicitly present. Build a personalized portfolio tracker to monitor your stocks, ETFs, and assets in one place. Use our stock tracker to monitor stocks, indices, ETFs, commodities and penny stocks in one place. We can partner with you to design an investment strategy that aligns with your goals and is able to weather all types of market cycles. Changing interest rates can influence market corrections by affecting borrowing costs and investor sentiment. As a result, strong economic indicators do not ensure immunity from market downturns.

How fake news shapes the business cycle

When interest rates rise, it typically becomes more expensive to borrow money, which can slow economic activity and lead to declines in stock prices as investors adjust their expectations. Yes, stock market corrections can occur even when the economy is strong. That range and average helps distinguish corrections and bear markets from routine market volatility, such as smaller pullbacks that may not reflect a broader reassessment of growth, inflation or earnings.

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In this environment, investors often focus less on predicting the next downdraft and more on building staying power through different market regimes. Politics has also intersected with monetary policy in ways markets watch closely. Median Fed projections anticipate another 2026 cut, while investors expect two additional cuts, showing how quickly market pricing can diverge from official guidance. When more areas participate, markets often become less reliant on a single narrative to keep moving higher. The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s” (OBBBA’s) business stimulus measures have lifted earnings expectations, adding another reason investors watch sectors beyond mega-cap technology.

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Exclusive content, detailed data sets, and best-in-class trade insights to rewrite your portfolio for tomorrow. In 2025, the initial public offering (IPO) market continued to rebound from the 2022 and 2023 slump. Explore how Nasdaq indexes are shaping the modern economy – igniting innovation, unlocking opportunity, and building the financial infrastructure of the future. A rally on the first trading day of the new year has taken London’s main share index through the milestone. Donald Trump’s plan to impose import taxes over Greenland pushed investors toward precious metals. Gold has fallen from recent highs but there are several reasons investors are still finding refuge in the precious metal.

• Given the media’s natural tendency to focus on out-of-the-ordinary events, the big news bias in media reporting is difficult to avoid.
• Investors largely looked past tariff headlines and government shutdown and instead tracked steadier signals such as robust consumer spending and corporate earnings growth.
• GSK shares healthy after annual results
• Bond investments are also subject to interest rate risk such that when interest rates rise, the prices of bonds can decrease, and the investor can lose principal value if the investment is sold prior to maturity.
• Parham, R and R Kaniel (2016), “Media attention and investment decisions”, VoxEU.org, 6 March.
• If the objective is to inform investors, selectively reporting large daily movements may offer little value to active investors and could mislead potential investors about long-term returns.

Despite recent volatility, we remain constructive on the economic cycle and confident in our call for investors to double down on diversification this year. And while much of this investment is funded through internal cash flow, mega‑cap technology companies are starting to rely more heavily on debt to finance the rapid expansion as they transition away from historically capital‑light business models. For investors looking to add exposure, a diversified approach across companies and business models may offer a more prudent path, in our view. After years of tech-led dominance, the market is experiencing a meaningful rotation toward traditional “old economy” sectors, a shift that aligns well with the TSX’s heavier exposure to these areas and that has contributed to its recent outperformance. We make no representations or warranties regarding the advisability of investing in any particular securities or utilizing any specific investment strategies. Authors/presenters may own the stocks they discuss.

Your tax and financial situation is unique. Market corrections are often driven by investor sentiment, valuations, or external factors, such as geopolitical conflict or government policies, and do not always reflect the underlying health of the economy. Market corrections can last days, weeks or months, and timelines vary because different catalysts unwind at different speeds.

We analyse all 1,846 live segments aired between 2017 and 2024 and compare the average daily performance of the DAX on days when it was reported to its overall average daily performance. The broadcast typically features a live segment from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, summarising the day’s most important economic news. However, the average daily performance of all six indices turns from positive to negative when weighted by daily media coverage, as illustrated in Figure 2. The orange line shows the drop in the reported DAX, which is composed of reported daily changes and an assumed change of zero on trading days without coverage. Consider Germany’s DAX stock index as reported on the country’s most-watched nightly news programme. Media consumers should be BraveWords: Tom Morello on Randy Rhoads aware of the big news bias and look beyond the daily news cycle to stay informed.